Climate changes characterized as global warming are leading to large-scale
irreversible effects at continental and global scales. The likelihood and
magnitude of the effects are observed and predicted to be increasing and
accelerating.
Many consequences of global warming once controversial or thought to be
unlikely are now being observed. Arctic shrinkage and Arctic methane release,
alongside large reductions in the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets,
accelerated global warming due to carbon cycle feedbacks in the terrestrial
biosphere, and releases of terrestrial carbon from permafrost regions and
methane from hydrates in coastal sediments are accelerating, leading to
expectations of runaway climate change.
The probability of warming having unforeseen consequences increases with the
rate, magnitude, and duration of climate change. Additionally, the United States
National Academy of Sciences has stated, "greenhouse warming and other human
alterations of the earth system may increase the possibility of large, abrupt,
and unwelcome regional or global climatic events…. Future abrupt changes cannot
be predicted with confidence, and climate surprises are to be expected."
The IPCC reports that the effects of global warming will be mixed across
regions. For smaller values of warming (of up to 3°C, or about 5°F), changes are
expected to produce net benefits in some regions and for some activities, and
net costs for others. Greater warming may produce net costs (or to reduce the
benefits from smaller warming) in all regions. Developing countries are
vulnerable to reduced economic growth as a result of warming.
Most of the consequences of global warming would result from physical
changes: sea level rise, higher local temperatures, and changes in rainfall
patterns. Sea level is expected to rise 18 to 59 cm (7.1 to 23.2 inches) by the
end of the 21st century, not including the unknown contribution from non-linear
changes to large ice sheets.
It has also been proposed that the melting in the Arctic may bring fresh
water to the North Atlantic to disrupt the Gulf Stream, which may cause a
destabilisation or shutdown of the Thermohaline circulation.